Last year, Yuki Tsunoda has shown remarkable progress, delivering consistent performances that are gaining recognition in the F1 world. Fans and media alike are buzzing with speculation about his potential promotion to Red Bull Racing.
However, inside the Red Bull organization, there is no clear sign of efforts to promote Tsunoda to the senior team. Instead, the team seems to favor other drivers like Daniel Ricciardo and Liam Lawson as potential candidates. Why is Tsunoda not in this mix?
What is stopping him from earning a Red Bull seat? The answer lies in the intricate dynamics of his career, shaped by Honda’s strong support and the constraints that come with it.

Honda’s Influence: A Double-Edged Sword
Tsunoda’s Formula 1 journey is inseparable from Honda’s backing. From his entry into the Red Bull Junior Program to his current role at Racing Bulls, Honda’s influence has been pivotal. But while this support has opened doors, it has also created a unique situation that separates Tsunoda from Red Bull’s core driver development strategy.
Red Bull’s promotion system primarily focuses on drivers who emerge from its Junior Program based on performance, results, and the team’s internal evaluations. As a Honda-supported driver, Tsunoda’s standing is fundamentally different. His presence in the Red Bull ecosystem is largely due to Honda’s influence, not the team’s direct developmental goals. This creates a perception that Tsunoda is not “Red Bull’s own,” but rather a Honda-backed outsider, which limits his chances of integration into the senior team.
Contractual and Political Complexities
About a year ago, Tsunoda’s F1 seat was under serious threat, with reserve driver Liam Lawson rumored to be a likely replacement. Ultimately, Tsunoda retained his seat for the 2024 season, a decision influenced not by Red Bull’s internal plans but by Honda’s leverage in the background. This highlights a key issue: Tsunoda’s position within the Red Bull system is not based on long-term strategic planning but rather on Honda’s indirect power within the partnership.
With Honda set to transition its F1 partnership to Aston Martin in 2026, the question of Tsunoda’s future becomes even more uncertain. His current role is heavily tied to Honda’s presence in the Red Bull ecosystem. Once that link dissolves, Tsunoda’s career trajectory may face significant challenges, especially in securing a competitive seat.

Red Bull’s Strategic Risks
Red Bull’s top priority is to cultivate drivers who can deliver long-term success for the team. Promoting Tsunoda comes with inherent risks. Even if Red Bull were to invest in his development, there is always the possibility that Honda could reclaim him for their own interests. This risk of losing a groomed talent to a third party reduces Red Bull’s incentive to promote Tsunoda, particularly when they have other candidates, like Lawson and Ricciardo, who align more closely with the team’s strategic goals.
Additionally, Tsunoda faces intense competition within Red Bull’s driver pool. With Max Verstappen firmly established as the team’s lead driver, the second seat requires not only top-tier performance but also political acumen and sponsor alignment. Tsunoda, despite his skill, is at a disadvantage compared to other candidates who may fit these criteria more seamlessly.
The Road Ahead: 2026 and Beyond
As Honda prepares to partner with Aston Martin in 2026, there is speculation about whether Tsunoda might find a place within that team. However, Aston Martin’s current lineup—featuring Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll—presents significant barriers. Even if a spot were to open, securing a regular driving role would be an uphill battle. The most realistic scenario for Tsunoda post-2026 might involve transitioning to a reserve driver role.
While Tsunoda’s talent and consistency could potentially attract interest from other teams, his deep ties with Honda create a significant obstacle. Most teams are reluctant to invest in a driver who remains closely associated with a manufacturer like Honda, fearing that any success would ultimately benefit their competitor. This underlying tension makes Tsunoda’s career path uniquely challenging.

An Ironic Conclusion
The very relationship that has propelled Tsunoda to F1—Honda’s backing—may now be the key factor limiting his progression to Red Bull Racing. While he is confirmed to race for Racing Bulls next season, the years leading up to 2026 will likely define the trajectory of his career. The interplay between Honda’s ambitions and Tsunoda’s own performance will be critical in determining whether he can secure a stable and competitive position in Formula 1.
For now, Tsunoda must continue to deliver outstanding performances, proving his value not just to Honda but to the wider F1 community. Whether he can transcend the constraints of his Honda affiliation remains one of the most intriguing questions surrounding his future in the sport.